Data Insights & Strategy: IRCC Study Permit Decisions

Actionable insights from our 2024 year-to-date analysis of IRCC study permit data

The latest IRCC data on decision volumes and study permit approvals for the first half of 2024 provides essential insights for DLIs looking to attract international students.

As the leading digital platform for immigration management, BorderPass has analyzed this data to help you make informed strategic decisions and navigate the evolving landscape of international student recruitment.

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The Advantage of BorderPass Data Insights

While recent media reports suggest that student permits are already outpacing 2023's record numbers, these reports appear to overlook that many approvals in Q1 2024 were processed under the less stringent pre-2024 requirements, painting a somewhat misleading picture.

BorderPass' analysis provides a more nuanced, accurate, and realistic view, highlighting a decline in approval rates and application volume—particularly from regions like Nigeria and Ghana. While these challenges are evident, they also present an opportunity for BorderPass to lead the way in navigating these complexities.

Decision Volume Impacted by Policy Changes

Data from January 2024 to June 2024 reveals several compelling trends in decision volume by source country:

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Decision Volumes, Top-10 Source Countries

^{Source: IRCC}

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Nigeria is now the second-highest source, underscoring a growing demand for Canadian education among West African applicants. This trend points to an opportunity for DLIs to enhance engagement and support mechanisms tailored to African—and more specifically Nigerian—students.
Ghana's decision volume ranks third, indicating strong and sustained interest. However, the sharp decline in monthly approvals suggests potential opportunities that should be addressed in order to convert applications into successful admissions.
Guinea makes a surprise appearance in the top source countries, demonstrating a stable and significant volume of applications. This heavy volume in recent months reflects a wider trend of West African applicants remaining keen on studying in Canada. Many applicants from Guinea have applied to DLIs in Quebec, leveraging their French language skills and seeking educational opportunities in a familiar linguistic environment.
China historically dominated the source market alongside India, but has been overtaken by West African regions in recent years. Still exhibiting consistent decision volumes, China remains a reliable source country. However, the aforementioned shift underscores the importance for DLIs to focus on diversifying their recruitment efforts, ensuring they can adapt to changing global trends.
Philippines' consistent volumes suggest opportunities for DLIs to maintain academic and cultural ties. However, BorderPass' internal data shows that many students from the Philippines tend to bring accompanying spouses on open work permits, which could affect their perception of Canada as a top study destination due to recent changes in policy regarding spousal permits.

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India: A Significant Decline in Decision Volume

India, traditionally a major source of international students for Canadian DLIs, has seen a sharp decline in decision volume.

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Number of IRCC Decisions from India, Jan-June 2024

^{Source: IRCC}

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Contributing factors include:

Regulatory changes have created uncertainty among prospective students and their families
Political tensions have caused hesitation among students, reducing Canada's appeal as a study destination
Media framing of student experiences and visa rejections has impacted the perception of Canada as a study destination

While some reduction in decision volume was expected due to major policy changes, the rate of decline for India has been significantly more rapid compared to other regions.

This sharp decline underscores the importance for DLIs to diversify their recruitment efforts, particularly focusing on emerging markets in Africa, to ensure a balanced and sustainable international student population.

Approval rates suggest country-specific strategies

Examining the approval rates from the top source countries from January 2024 to June 2024 provides deeper insights into the challenges and opportunities faced by international students and DLIs.

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Study Permit Approval Rates by Country of Residence

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^{Source: IRCC}

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China exhibits relatively high and stable approval rates, with the highest rate in June (93%). This stability makes China a reliable source country for student recruitment. China is also an SDS country, and as noted above, the higher requirements typically lead to higher approvals.
India's approval rates have fluctuated significantly, with a notable drop in March (65%) followed by a gradual recovery. This variability suggests that external factors, such as regulatory changes, might be influencing these rates. However, India is an eligible country in the Student Direct Stream. The SDS stream requires more documents, and more requirements (e.g. fully paid tuition) and typically leads to higher approval rates compared to non-SDS countries.
Philippines maintains moderate approval rates, peaking in March (59%) and showing stability around 50% in other months, indicating a consistent and reliable source of students.
Nepal's approval rates have fluctuated, with a low of 27% in April but a notable increase to 33% in June. This improvement may be attributed to Nepalese students' strong ability to demonstrate proof of funds, often relying on student loans. At BorderPass, we assist a large number of Nepalese students in ensuring that their student loan documentation is properly filed and clearly presented to the government, which likely contributes to the higher approval rates.
Bangladesh displays an upward trend in approval rates from January (17%) to May (42%), followed by a slight decline in June (22%). This suggests that while there are improvements, challenges remain that need addressing, such as proving sufficient funds and ensuring complete and authenticated academic documentation.

Africa: Overcoming Challenges and Unlocking Potential

African countries, particularly Nigeria and Ghana, have faced significant challenges with consistently low approval rates for study permits, ranging from 15-18% and experiencing volatility. For instance, Ghana's approval rates peaked at 46% in March but dropped sharply to 15% in June. Despite these challenges, there are promising steps that can be taken to yield more positive outcomes.

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Study Permit Approval Rates, African Countries

^{Source: IRCC}

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At BorderPass, we believe in expanding SDS eligibility to include regions like Nigeria and Ghana, allowing qualified applicants to benefit from faster and more accurate processing. There are many capable candidates from these countries who, with proper guidance and documentation, can successfully navigate the visa application process. While economic barriers and the ability to prove sufficient funds remain hurdles, providing targeted support can help overcome these obstacles. Additionally, applicants often struggle with the visa process due to insufficient guidance and expertise, and incomplete or incorrect documentation can lead to a high number of rejections.

Recent changes, such as the increase in cost of living requirements from $10,000 to $20,635, have also impacted approval rates. Applications submitted after this change have seen a decrease in approvals, highlighting the need for better preparation and understanding of the new requirements. Despite these challenges, the sustained interest and volume from African students underscore the importance of DLIs remaining focused on Africa as a recruitment market. It holds significant potential for growth and is a key region for DLIs to diversify their recruitment efforts, reducing over-reliance on traditional markets like India and China.‍

DLIs should engage in targeted outreach and support initiatives, offering comprehensive guidance and resources to African applicants. By doing so, they can improve the success rates of these applicants and tap into a vibrant and growing market for international education.

BorderPass Solutions: Navigating Study Permit Challenges

At BorderPass, we assist international students in overcoming the complexities of the visa application process, especially from regions with low approval ratings. Our tailored solutions enhance the success rates of study permit applications, with new product features that continually improve the process for students, learning institutions, and employers: